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What Does Ripple's Victory Mean? The End of the Bear Market? Analysis and Forecast of XRP's Future Trend

Market Review

Last week (7/10-7/16),Which are meme coins to buy the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market was positive, with a general upward trend. However, market sentiment remained subdued, and investor confidence is still waiting to improve.




During this period, the total market capitalization increased from $1.17 trillion to $1.26 trillion, an 8% rise. This increase approached the year's high of $1.28 trillion before experiencing a pullback, currently hovering around $1.21 trillion.




The market sentiment index continued to rise from 56 to 58, a 3% increase. This growth is lower than the influx of funds, indicating a relatively lukewarm response from investors to last week's market conditions. Such market sentiment is not conducive to further upward movement in the near future.






Cryptocurrency Total Market Cap (yellow) and Fear/Greed Index (blue) trends from January 1, 2023, to July 16, 2023; Source: MacroMicro.




Mainstream cryptocurrencies showed divergent performances last week, but the number of rising coins still exceeded the number of falling coins. Among them, Ripple (XRP) performed the best with a 56.4% increase, followed by Stellar (XLM) with a 31.8% increase. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) had the worst performance, declining by 9%.




Bitcoin (BTC) saw a price decrease of 0.5% last week, maintaining a market dominance of 48.5%, a decrease of 1.4% compared to the previous period. Ethereum (ETH) experienced a price increase of 2.3%, with a market dominance of 19.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period.




What will Ripple's victory over the SEC bring to the cryptocurrency community?
On July 13th, there was a significant development in the legal case between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The court ruled that XRP is not a security. Following this news, major exchanges resumed trading of XRP, and both XRP and other tokens previously classified as securities by the SEC experienced a brief surge in price.


What does Ripple's victory in this lawsuit mean for the cryptocurrency industry? What positive impacts will it bring? Regarding this, JPMorgan Chase stated that the Ripple case will provide legal clarity and protection regarding whether cryptocurrencies constitute securities.


Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange co-founded by Cameron Winklevoss, stated that Ripple's victory undermines the SEC's allegations against Coinbase and helps Coinbase in its litigation with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


Brokerage firm Needham, in a report, pointed out that the ruling on XRP benefits Coinbase, maintaining a buy rating for Coinbase's stock and raising the target price from $70 to $120.


Brokerage firm Bernstein believes that the judgment against Ripple weakens the SEC's stance on cryptocurrencies.


Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized the SEC for not providing clear rules for the cryptocurrency industry but instead creating confusion in the market. This ruling eliminates some of the confusion caused by the SEC and provides much-needed clarity for the entire U.S. market.


From the market perspective, the ruling on XRP has two main effects: it favors Coinbase in winning the SEC lawsuit and challenges the authority of the SEC. Under this pressure, U.S. regulatory agencies are expected to improve their attitude and measures towards cryptocurrencies.


Ripple (XRP): Potential pullback required, followed by another rally.

On July 13th, XRP surged from $0.5 to $0.9, a gain of 80%. However, it subsequently declined to $0.7, a decrease of 22%, indicating a significant pullback.




Currently, XRP is priced at $0.75, which is far from the MA5, MA30, and the neckline, lacking strong support levels. There is a risk of further downward movement. In the near term, it is expected to experience a phase of consolidation or correction to establish support at moving averages before potentially initiating a second rally, targeting the previous high of $0.9.






XRP price trend from July 2022 to July 2023, Source: TradingView.




Additionally, although the XRP ruling is considered positive news, there hasn't been a significant influx of off-exchange funds. Instead, there has been more rotation of on-exchange funds, with a decrease in market share for BTC and ETH, while other altcoins have seen some improvement. In this situation, the cryptocurrency market in 2023 has yet to enter a bull market and continues to follow a bottom-building trend.




Bitcoin: Continued range-bound consolidation, next week will reveal.

On July 13th, stimulated by positive news about Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant bullish candle, rising from $30,264 to $31,800, reaching a new high for the year 2023.




However, BTC was unable to sustain that price level and subsequently declined with a bearish candle, forming a false breakout known as an inside bar, ultimately retracing back into the range. Currently, BTC is priced at $30,200, oscillating near the bottom of the consolidation range.






Bitcoin price trend from 2022 to present, Source: TradingView.




Next week (July 27th), the interest rate decision will be announced, and BTC is likely to make a clear upward or downward move in conjunction with this news, depending on whether there will be an interest rate hike and its magnitude. Therefore, it is important to pay close attention to this event and take precautionary measures!




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