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Crypto Celebrates Another Victory: SEC Forced to Approve Grayscale's Application to Convert GBTC into ETF!

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On August 29th, the United States District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals announced its ruling, requiring the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to consider Grayscale's 2021 application to convert GBTC (a Bitcoin-backed stock) into a BTC spot ETF.

1. What does Grayscale's victory over the SEC mean?

Following the news, Bitcoin (BTC) formed a large bullish candlestick on the hourly chart, breaking through the recent resistance level of $26,800. It surged from a low of $26,000 to a high of $28,128, marking an 8% increase.

Bitcoin 1-Hour Price Chart, Source: TradingView.

The significance of Grayscale's victory over the SEC goes beyond stimulating an increase in BTC price. There are two more crucial implications:

Firstly, the SEC has been cracking down on cryptocurrencies for the past two years, which has caused significant discontent among industry players and investors. This victory provides them with a chance to breathe easy and demonstrates that the SEC's actions are not widely supported.

Secondly, Grayscale's successful outcome paves the way for the conversion of GBTC into a BTC spot ETF. Once accomplished, the SEC would have no grounds to reject similar applications from institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity Investment, Invesco, VanEck, 21Shares, Wisdom Tree, and others. This will provide a significant long-term boost for traditional financial involvement in cryptocurrencies.

2. Grayscale vs. Ripple: SEC victories

After Ripple's victory against the SEC on July 14th, Grayscale's recent win marks the second major triumph in the crypto market. What are the differences between these two cases?

	Grayscale	Ripple
SEC Position	Rejection of GBTC conversion into BTC spot ETF	Classification of XRP as a security
Time	Grayscale application in 2021; SEC rejection in 2022; Court ruling in 2023;	SEC determination in 2020; Court ruling in 2023；
Result	Approval	XRP recognized as partially security
Court	U.S. Southern District of New York	U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York
Benefitting projects/institutions	BlackRock、Vaneck、Ethereum wallet downloadWisdom Tree,Litecoin wallet sign up etc.	SOL, FIL, MATIC, ADA, BNB, ATOM, etc.

Controversies between SEC and Grayscale, Ripple, Source: Mitrade.

These controversies were mainly initiated by the SEC and ultimately ended with the SEC's defeat. Unfortunately, even when the SEC loses, it faces no fines or other penalties, which contributes to its continued dominance without consequence.

Fortunately, victories were achieved on behalf of the crypto market. Grayscale's success favors traditional financial entry into cryptocurrencies, while Ripple's victory sets an example for other projects, helping provide compliant and legal investment options.

3. Will Grayscale's victory over the SEC bring a bull market?

The news of Grayscale's victory has been seen as a positive signal and has attracted investors to buy Bitcoin, as indicated by its price fluctuations. However, whether BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market will continue their rebound or even enter a bull market remains uncertain.

Some believe that a BTC spot ETF means each share issued must be supported by actual BTC at a 1:1 ratio, serving as a catalyst for a new bull market.

However, there are also dissenting opinions. Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer at Arca, stated, "Viewing this ruling as a panacea for ongoing BTC upside is premature. Real follow-through only occurs when BlackRock and others start truly selling BTC in their filings."

From a technical perspective, BTC has successfully broken through the short-term resistance level of $26,800. However, additional buying power from the market is needed for further upward movement and to surpass $30,000. The current sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and even if Grayscale's BTC spot ETF is approved, it may not necessarily attract significant new funds.

Bitcoin Daily Price Chart, Source: TradingView.

To drive external funds, efforts from giants like BlackRock are necessary. They possess substantial capital and can mobilize other types of funds. Therefore, the real bull market depends on the volume of capital, where BlackRock serves as a significant driving force that may lead the market to a bullish trend.

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